Avian "bird" influenza has been causing epidemics of Influenza among birds (especially chickens and ducks) in the far East since 1997. The H5N1 strain is thought by many experts to have the potential to be the cause of the next great Pandemic of Influenza. For this to occur, the virus needs to acquire the gene mutations necessary for it to spread easily from person to person; so far this has not occurred. Currently, there are only a very few cases where the virus has spread from the primary case (with direct exposure to sick poultry) to one other close contact; further transmission has not been documented. Tamiflu (oseltamivir) is an anti-viral compound that MAY be effective in the treatment of this strain of Influenza, but this uncertain at this time. While we currently have no "official" guidance on this subject, we are concerned that if many people request a prescription for Tamiflu as a hedge against the theoretical future risk of "Avian flu" we will exhaust the current supply of the drug needed for this year's certain outbreak of "routine" Influenza. Our advice is to hold off on stockpiling Tamiflu for the short term and keep abreast of this rapidly evolving situation by monitoring frequently updated websites such as www.nytimes.com and the Center for Disease Control at www.cdc.gov.
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